Famed international lecture circuit star and globe trotter Harm de Blij of Boca Grande gave an update on world affairs Tuesday morning at the Boca Grande Community Center before a sellout crowd of roughly 200.
De Blij (pronounced du BLAY) can always be counted upon to give a grave world overview interspersed with humorous asides, observations and politically incorrect opinions. He was in his element in front of what he calls his favorite audience "with a combined intellectual capacity greater than mine."
Audiences usually leave a de Blij lecture feeling a bit more uneasy about world affairs with the positive tradeoff of possessing greater insights into why they are occurring and what can be done about them.
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Harm de Blij’s talks usually embrace a wide-ranging world view.
His topics this week included the splintering of the European Union and its imploding euro-based financial system; global warming; the future of nuclear power; China's continued neo-colonization of other countries, including the expected run through Afghanistan once the U.S. military is disengaged; Islamic schisms; and the eventual U.S. incursion into Mexico to combat the growing threat of drug traffickers.
De Blij tied all that together in a tidy 50-minute oration where he barely paused for breath. His reason for giving these talks is simple.
"There are events that change history," de Blij said. "We are not prepared for that."
Fact Box
De Blij's next appearance will be a discussion of natural resources at 10:30 a.m. April 3, once again in the Boca Grande Community Center, as a benefit for the Wildlife Center of Venice. The $25 tickets are available from the Loose Caboose or at the door.
America's role in a changing world will involve an understanding it's become much harder, if not impossible, to effectively project power around the globe, de Blij said. Usually a critic of President Barack Obama, de Blij was complimentary in his assessment of the U.S. withdrawal in Afghanistan.
"I think he is running this war in just about the way it should be," de Blij said.
His withering assessment of Obama's predecessor, President George W. Bush, remains unshaken. Bush was a foreign policy buffoon whose false weapons of mass destruction excuse to invade Iraq has backfired in the Middle East ever since his "mission accomplished" pronouncement, he said.
"The Bush subterfuge was a catastrophe for the United States," de Blij said.
Large countries - even superpowers - have less ability than ever today to influence the affairs of smaller countries, de Blij said. He pointed to Haiti where, despite great efforts from Ben Scott's Boca Grande relief team and other U.S. outreach, it remains largely the impoverished mess it was before the catastrophic 2010 earthquake and even decades earlier.
"The superpower's ability to project influence are diminished because of the amount of resistance mounted by local cultures," de Blij said. "There are no more unimportant countries - regardless of size. Size is no longer a factor in a country's potential for wreaking havoc on the world."
When the U.S. military leaves Afghanistan, global maps will be rewritten as China and Russia erase borders and reorganize the political landscape, he said. The United States would do well to stay out of such disputes, he said.
"The border issues will be settled by the locals," he said.
Mother Nature can exert a much greater influence on foreign affairs, he said. While de Blij has long scoffed at the concept of global warming, (he believes weather changes are better explained by understanding climate patterns produced through orbital wobbles involving the Sun and planet Earth) he does allow that man is treating the oceans, the air and the land as his garbage can.
"As a matter of public health, the atmosphere should be cleansed," de Blij said. "The fact of the matter is, the battle against climate pollution is being lost."
Among his other predictions and observations:
The United States will have troops in Mexico within five years because of its leadership vacuum, economic instability and encroaching drug lords. "It's spinning out of control."
European Union nations such as his home country, the Netherlands, will desert the shaky euro in favor of a return to more traditional currencies such as the gilder. 'The euro is impractical the way it is," he said.
The ultimate Islamic schism is now about to play out, which is not good news for women in that part of the world. Male dominance will likely be strengthened as the issue is contested.
China's global aspirations, despite unparalleled resources, seem to be in flux as its leadership dithers. "China's self-confidence, for whatever reason, is shrinking."
De Blij's next appearance will be a discussion of natural resources at 10:30 a.m. April 3, once again in the Boca Grande Community Center, as a benefit for the Wildlife Center of Venice. The $25 tickets are available from the Loose Caboose or at the door.
